I can already imagine the dislike mail that’s coming my way, but before you tell me how amazing this stock is has been, realize that we always and will always have darlings and they all eventually¬†succumb¬†to selling. I’m not saying Apple is done, but I am suggesting it’s in need of a deeper correction and if my analysis on the general market is correct we should get it over the coming months.

 


24 Responses to “Why I Think Apple Is Heading To $400”

  1. Nan Says:

    Makes sense to me. Earlier today I put a simple trend line/mean on APPL and realized it could easily reach $450 – 470. To think it might go lower as you suspect, seems plausible. Someone has to trim those top heavy branches. Pruning will keep it healthy.

  2. Allan Says:

    Thinking AAPL can’t or never will fall from grace is dangerous to ones financial health.
    Who woulda thought that Nokia’s global market share of the mobile phone market would fall to less than 10%.
    Remember the once great Hewlett Packard?

    In the tech industry you are only as good as your last product and in this ultra competitive market, “you slip, you fall”

  3. Gary Says:

    There seems to be some problems with the launch of the new iMacs which won’t help the short term. Long term, I can’t see APL avoiding the economic trend ahead.

  4. ch Says:

    Thought you might point out the very obvious RSI divergence on the weekly near the highs… Also, with such a directional call, I’m curious if you plan to trade it, or if it’s just a “call” you’re putting out there…

  5. jeff pierce Says:

    I don’t trade Apple because it’s such a widely followed stock. Sometimes those stocks don’t do what “they should do” with technical analysis or it can take a little longer to play out and one can get skaken out of a position. I use these same strategies to follow lesser known stocks and I’m fine with that. It’s just so many ask about AAPL, hence why I do analysis on it.

  6. Kent Says:

    I’m actually short Apple (short term) as of Friday, and this post still sounds like crap. First of all, the hemming and hawing…”Oh, wow…I’m so anxious about what I’m going to say…I’m hesitant to say it at all…” Please. You turned the camera on and opened your mic. Make a call. Secondly, the argument based heavily on this one number and ignoring all others makes you sound like someone who REALLY WANTS this to happen, and is just trying to prime the pump for it with posts like this.

  7. jeff pierce Says:

    you really don’t know me at all Kent. I have no interest in whether Apple falls to 200 or goes to 1000. I do not trade it. this is just what I see.

  8. Kent Says:

    “Calls” by people who don’t put money on the line are worth nothing. Do you have a network of followers that you feel you have to service on stocks you don’t really care about? I don’t buy the “I’m completely ambivalent…just an observer” act for a second. If you didn’t care, you wouldn’t be tracking it.

  9. Gary Says:

    I’ve never understood why tech analyst are not able to say “when”. I’ve seen so many ‘head and shoulder” in the last six months that never resulted in what the analyst was predicting. It begins to sound like earthquake predictions….’based on empirical evidence, an 8.0 or greater will happen in the next 50 years.’ At least we get a time frame with earthquakes. With all the data that leads an analyst to predict an event, why isn’t there enough to say it will happen in 1 month…3 months…?

  10. George Says:

    I’ve never understood why tech analyst are not able to say “when”. I’ve seen so many ‘head and shoulder” in the last six months that never resulted in what the analyst was predicting. It begins to sound like earthquake predictions….’based on empirical evidence, an 8.0 or greater will happen in the next 50 years.’ At least we get a time frame with earthquakes. With all the data that leads an analyst to predict an event, why isn’t there enough to say it will happen in 1 month…3 months…?

  11. J.Dostigan Says:

    Not involved in name at this time, but I like this video. Apple is a market call.

    Why should he not put his money on line and make this call? It might not fit his trading style, but that does not mean he is not interested in the market, in the stock, the Apple Supply Chain stocks like Qualcom and Cirrus.

    Go back and watch his old videos before the negativity on someone who has educated and help so many people. Seriously.. no one forced you to watch a 5mt video that if proven right, you guys will still be negative!!

  12. Steve Says:

    “I’ve never understood why tech analyst…” – Gary or George or whoever the hell you are, the market is not a precise instrument you knob(s). Market TA calls or predictions are about developing probabilities and not absolutes. That’s what trade calls are based on. Patterns don’t always play out no matter what is predicted or observed by whomever. That’s why the caveat “do your own due diligence” is so widely embraced by traders. If you think technical analysis is weak, go embrace fundamental analysis instead where I’m sure the buy and hold results are much better.

  13. jeff pierce Says:

    like, Like, LIKE!!! ha ha Steve!

  14. jeff pierce Says:

    Thx John, much appreciated. And you nailed exactly the reason why I don’t trade Apple. It in fact does not fit my trading style and I’m smart enough to know that. There is also something that I can’t explain about “widely followed” stocks that tend to be extremely volatile that I just like to stay away from. NFLX is another one that just plain scares me the way it trades.

  15. Gary Says:

    Sorry about the double post. I didn’t think it was taking my last post because of a previous post on his thread so I changed email and name. Turns out it had posted my first attempt.

    Not really sure what a “knob” is. My comment was not an attack. It was just a simple question. If someone is able to make a prediction of further significant decline in a stock or index based on their analysis of data, why not put a time frame on the prediction? What is the point if the qualifier is “I don’t know when it will happen”? It doesn’t have to be precise. There is an old axiom of economic forecasting..’.if your forecast doesn’t happen, just keep repeating it till it does.’ A forecast without a timeline is worthless IMO.

    Knob

  16. jeff pierce Says:

    thanks for clarifying Gary. to be honest I sometimes don’t get sarcasm in person and it’s completely impossible to determine on the net, especially on twitter. thanks for being a good sport.

  17. jeff pierce Says:

    there is a time factor that is often over-looked in trading. if I had to give a time frame it’d probably be in march…but that’s really just a guess.

  18. Nirmal Says:

    May be you are looking at right shoulder formation in progress :)

  19. Gary Says:

    I used to do econometric forecasting for a living may years ago. I learned it is worthless, especially in today’s geo-political economy. Every outcome is more often than not the result of a non-repetitive event caused by a non-predictive macro event.

    I wasn’t complaining about the analyst of APL. I happen to agree with it but for different reasons. I was only making an observation that it contained no probability or time estimate and is thus just a non-actionable study. IMO, any trading forecast that is longer than two weeks is a guess. That is not a criticism but just a reflection of the volitable times we are in now.

  20. jeff pierce Says:

    IMO, any trading forecast that is longer than two weeks is a guess.

    I completely agree. So essentially I should have rephrased my post to read something like “this is what I would have to see happen for me to get interested in a long trade in apple”. does that sound better?….

  21. jeff pierce Says:

    I like this sentence. “Every outcome is more often than not the result of a non-repetitive event caused by a non-predictive macro event.” Very wise.

  22. jeff pierce Says:

    I’m curious what your reasons are for thinking apple is going to fall.

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