By Jeff Pierce

So I’ve been trimming out of some of my market etf’s this week anticipating a pullback, but I’ve also been nibbling on a few positions throughout the week. So what does that say about me? I’m cautiously optimistic that the markets are going to go up, sideways, or any dip is going to be short lived.

My view on the market is we either keep going up or we’re going to have a very fast and shallow pullback and then up. Both┬áscenarios┬ásee us higher a month from now based on my current analysis. I wouldn’t be short right now as there is just no reason to be based on the market’s refusal to drop and it’s too dangerous. I wouldn’t be overly long as that isn’t good reward to risk. I will say this: the longer we stay at these highs the greater the chances this just busts to the upside one of these days and starts another leg up. We had a chance today to break to the downside of the diamond pattern that was forming on the Dow, but it couldn’t stick.

Check out the chart of the Nikkei below. When you compare it to our current Dow, the recent move higher doesn’t seem so steep.

nikk

 

djia


6 Responses to “Maybe We Just Continue The Melt Up”

  1. Kurblius Says:

    The S&P 500 looks like a diamond pattern, especially if you use 1 hr intervals

  2. Allan Says:

    I’m sorry Jeff I cant agree on this. Valuations will always penalise when they become distorted and quite frankly I am now daily reading articles of DOW 16k 20k and higher and talk of new paradigms.

    Sound familiar? I certainly have no intention of going long and then trying to sell into a vaccuum.

    Cheers

  3. Thinksmart Says:

    I am agreed with Allan and Jeff.

    I think we are not ready to go down. (not this week or next week)

    Since the beginning of the week we see two sell off in the morning and the buyers are back in the afternoon.

    We will continue to grind (only grind, no big popup) 2 or 3% on the major indices until the end of the month.

    After that a little pullback or correction… ? No negative news are priced in…

  4. Danny Says:

    Definitely a viable scenario.
    When this close to all time highs in major indices, it starts acting like a strange attractor. So usually you get there.
    A lot of traders take profits at that point, so typically you then get a pullback.
    What happens next is a bit more difficult to forecast.

  5. jeff pierce Says:

    so here we are on nasdaq for 2013. http://screencast.com/t/gJNNSzNX we’re at the upper range so now let’s see if we can break out from there. believe me, I don’t think we should go higher, but it definitely is a possibility that anybody trading the markets should at the very least consider….and plan accordingly.

    I never want you go “agree” with me… lol. I want more discussions like this post is getting. Awesome work guys.

  6. Thinksmart Says:

    Which catalyst can put this market higher and by the way it will be the historic higher ? Without an another good earning season I don’t see anything. We are a bit ahead in time.

    Anyway a lot of challenge for all of us in the next coming weeks.

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