By Jeff Pierce

My target for Apple was sub $400 many months ago, and more specifically near the $387 range (although not for any Fibonacci level), I just found it interesting that the 50% retracement mirrored that level. And it may take a flush out event to cause some bulls hanging on to capitulate. That could set the stage for a more sustained rally in Apple. I’ve been bearish on this stock for many months and I think now is the time to switch to a more neutral stance and even possibly a bullish outlook.

Apple is still a monster from a commercial sense and don’t let the last 4 months define this stock. As you can see the uptrend is well intact and could easily fall to the 61.8% level and still not break the uptrend although I don’t think it will fall that much. I don’t think it’ll break $360 but if it does it’ll be only intraday and I would wager it would rebound a significant amount of that intraday selling by days close.

They report after the bell on April 23rd. If it continues to be depressed until then, and has an initial selloff, then that could bring the buying opportunity many have been waiting for.

aapl


3 Responses to “Target Achieved In Apple”

  1. Mark Says:

    Hi Jeff

    I’m interested in your comment that “the uptrend is still intact..” I was looking at a monthly chart and based on a long term trendline starting in 2003, which was touched twice in 08/09, that it had broken that trendline and so I was forming the opinion that, although it might rally back to the trendline, that there was going to be more downside still.

    Very much appreciate your additional thoughts and comments on this.

    Best regards,

    Mark

  2. jeff pierce Says:

    Hey Mark. I think what we have here is a difference in what defines an uptrend. By classic standard if you connect the lows and draw a trendline you would certainly have a breach. I try to not view charts the same as everyone else, especially one that went on such a strong move out of the channel AAPL was in from 09-12. This stock got very overextended but has fallen back to a more natural level now. In fact, this could fall to $315 and by my standards still be in an uptrend. I don’t think it will, and by that measure I would view this chart as strong as many would not. Many would say this chart is thrashed, but that is a very short term view in my opinion and a wrong take as well. Look at the monthly RSI. It’s still above 30. How can one view this chart as bearish? If this were to have a big selloff on earnings next week to the low 300′s, that would be a very good buying opportunity – but again, I don’t think that will happen. Imagine the bearish sentiment on it then.

  3. Mark Says:

    Thx Jeff. Very interesting and a good point about the RSI.

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