The Dollar looks to have put in a DCL right in the timing band. The 12 day decline into the low has more than provided the consolidation needed to confirm the low and recharge the Cycle. This was fairly evident today with the Dollar rocketing out of its Cycle Low with an impressive 0.80 move.
The Dollar is an interesting Cycle to study here because there are some varying scenarios that could be unfolding. Firstly, it’s pretty clear on the chart that the Dollar is sporting a Daily Cycle failure. Typically such a failure means that the dominant Cycle is now in decline, in this case it’s the Investor Cycle. This isn’t an unreasonable expectation; the Investor Cycle is on Week 11 and in the timing band for a top.
It’s important to understand that a Cycle failure does not have to mean a Cycle in decline though. Generally they are telling of future weak price action, but there are no hard and fast rules in Cycles around these failures. So for this reason, an Investor Cycle decline does not need to occur imminently or from a new Left Translated Cycle.
But at this point with a Daily Cycle failure and a Week 11 Investor Cycle, we should be on the lookout for a new Cycle that tops fairly early. The logical top or turn would be after a move to a double top (83.50) or a quick burst to new highs.
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