Today marked the first time since November that my market timing signal has gone bearish. At that time the upside momentum was to strong to allow the markets to correct properly, but I think this time is different. Or possibly it was just the Government’s manipulation of the bond market & POMO infusions…but who really wants to be that guy who points fingers.

The market seems to have been running on fumes, with the bulls making the argument that any weakness in the market was “sector rotation”. A lower higher on the Nasdaq, combined with a longer term double top, sprinkle in some Egyptian macroeconomic news and you have a triple threat to the downside.

Related Posts:

Markets Avoid Sell Signal, Barely

Lack of Setups Dismiss Sector Rotation Theory

Self Correcting Market Poses Unique Situation

7 Responses to “Market Timing Call: Confirmed Down”

  1. abdul Says:

    The bull is tired and the bear is fresh to take over.

  2. Paul Says:

    A word of caution:
    POMO is NOT over yet.
    If your first “sell signal” failed because of POMO, how will the second “sell signal” be different?

  3. jeff pierce Says:

    To be honest I can’t say, but there are many factors that come into play. The Feds can’t prop the markets up indefinitely and if Egypt isn’t the catalyst for a correction there could easily be a different black swan.

  4. Julia Says:

    It is so wired. The market is running on fumes again. I guess neither fundamentals nor technical analysis works.
    Overall, US is the biggest benificiary on Fed’s action, dollor devaluation and inflation on everything else. Maybe that’s why.

  5. jeff pierce Says:

    today’s action makes no sense. even from a bull’s point of view, today was difficult to trade with the large gap up. then you have buy into an already overbought market, hoping that the trend continues. today is one of those maximum frustration days for many traders.

  6. Roger Says:

    My common sense just would NOT let me go long today even though all my signals said it was headed North; that’s just how it is and the net result is that I was badly in the hole trying to do the impossible of catching the top; however given the market situation am still reluctant to go long even now for day trading ….

  7. Paul Says:

    Hmmmm…….the only question is if this is another failed sell signal , I guess we shall know soon enough.

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