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I think the most bullish thing this market could have done today was drop a hundred or two on light volume to consolidate some of the gains it’s had over the last 5 trading days. When I was going over my trading indicators tonight this one jumped out as I immediately noticed that the Nasdaq new lows are at the lowest levels it’s been this year. The last few times (May 31 & Aug 11) this indicator has been under 50 the entire market has sold off as you can see in the highlighted boxes on the Nasdaq chart.

Right now I believe this market wants to rise, but it can’t go straight up and no matter what the retail numbers are I think we’re going to head lower next week. This should present a good buying opportunity to enter new longs and add to existing positions. If the retail numbers are better than expected we’ll probably pop Monday morning and then sell off later that day. If they’re poor then I’d expect to see the markets sell off premarket and keep the market under pressure for a day or two. As long as the selling doesn’t turn into anything more than profit taking and shaking out the weaker hands, this rally could continue through the Christmas season.



3 Responses to “Nasdaq New Lows Near Bottom”

  1. Charlie G. Says:

    I can't imagine there NOT being some kinda correction / pullback, or whatever, next week. What makes this upturn in the larger downtrend look technically different than, for example, in late October when $Compq went from around 1500 to 1800? Or we really won't know until we see how far things go back down?

    Hey, thanks for the TweekDeck suggestion, its a great application.

  2. Jeff Pierce Says:

    The problem with a rally within a bear market is that everyone expects it to fail until it doesn't and shocks everybody and we don't know it's just a countertrend rally until it turns around.

    Personally I don't think we've had a chance to really have a decent bear market rally as every rally so far has been shut down before it really had a chance to get it's legs.

    Sooner or later we'll get one that will convince the majority to get long and at that point it will reverse.

    I checked out Twirl but it's nothing compared to tweedeck. I'm becoming more and more bullish on Twitter these days at the potential it offers. If I find any other platforms within the Twitterworld I'll definitely pass on the knowledge.

  3. David Says:

    Rimm looks all wound up to ,, ready to fill that gap…

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