By Poly

This is an excerpt from this weekend’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

Cycle Counts

Cycle Count Observation Probable Outlook Cycle Clarity Trend
Daily Day 28 Range 18-22 Days – 2nd Daily Cycle     Neutral
Green Up
Investor Week 11 Range 18-22 Weeks  Bullish Green Up
3Yr Month 13 Range 36-42 – 6th Investor Cycle. Bullish Green Up

We knew the dollar was pushing lower towards the next DCL because the dollar had already turned and broken below the 10 day moving average, all while deep enough in the DC timing band. My goal for this Cycle (as in most cases) was to see the rising trend-line broken and then a reversal develop, before a new Cycle can be declared. From the looks of the chart below, we might have already seen the 2nd DCL, although a decline of just 5 sessions is not typically enough time to reset the Cycle. In any case, the Cycle Low is imminent (if not already in) and from there the dollar will be ready to rally once more to form in the least a slightly higher high. It’s at that point where we wait to see what the longer time-frame Investor Cycle has in stall.

The dollar is in an interesting long term position here and it obviously has specific connotation for the commodity complex in general. If I had to speculate, then I would not classify this action as topping, but rather as consolidation of a possible new primary trend. The dollar put in a stellar 2014 performance and from what I can see, this is an Investor Cycle that is working off those gains via time. I try to steer clear of these grand predictions because as you can see, it could easily cloud once views on assets that are historically correlated.

7-29 Dollar Daily

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